Worsening Heat in the World’s Poorest Cities Highlights Deepening Climate Inequities

markrenngont

Cities in low- and middle-income countries are increasingly grappling with the urban heat island effect, a growing problem fueled by rapid, unplanned urban expansion, diminishing green spaces, and insufficient infrastructure. According to a new study, this intensifying heat is not just a matter of rising temperatures—it is a reflection of widening social and environmental inequalities in urban areas.

As more than half of the world’s population now lives in cities—a number expected to rise to about 70 percent by 2050—the way cities are built is playing a significant role in how climate change is experienced. The urban heat island effect occurs when dense concentrations of buildings, roads, and other heat-retaining surfaces like asphalt and concrete trap more heat than surrounding rural areas.

In a study published in npj Urban Sustainability, researchers examined urban heat island trends in over five million urban grids globally between 2003 and 2018. They found that cities are warming at an average rate of 0.021°C per year, with the fastest increases seen in low- and middle-income regions.

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“Urban heat islands are not simply about rising temperatures—they reveal deeper patterns of inequality in how cities are structured and who benefits from green, resilient infrastructure,” said Chuan Liao, assistant professor in the Department of Global Development at Cornell University and a co-author of the study.

The impacts are especially stark in regions such as South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East, where urbanization is accelerating and vegetation is often replaced with impermeable surfaces. These changes disrupt natural cooling processes and intensify local warming.

“This kind of heat build-up is shaped by the urban environment itself—factories, densely packed housing, paved roads, and busy transport networks,” explained Lotfy Azaz, professor of urban planning and geographic information systems at Menoufia University in Egypt. “Many lower-income countries are undergoing unchecked urban growth, while wealthier countries have stabilized and adopted strategies to manage urban heat more effectively.”

Major cities like Dhaka, Nairobi, Cairo, and Karachi are seeing the worst effects, especially in informal settlements where green cover and access to cooling infrastructure are severely lacking. The research shows that the urban heat island effect peaks during summer days—when solar energy is most intense—and winter nights, when retained heat in urban materials keeps cities warmer than rural areas.

Liao notes that nighttime temperatures are rising especially fast in developing nations, driven by increasing population density and energy consumption. “This adds stress at times when the body normally recovers from heat exposure,” he said.

The consequences are serious. In a world where heatwaves are becoming more intense and frequent, urban residents—particularly the poor—are facing higher risks of heat-related illness, energy poverty, and death. Without access to basic cooling, electricity, or shaded spaces, many people are left vulnerable.

“Climate injustice is very clear in this context,” said Liao. “Those who have contributed the least to the global climate crisis are suffering the most, and they also have the least capacity to adapt.”