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Unequal Burdens: Major Polluters Face Less Risk While Least Responsible Nations Suffer Most

The countries most responsible for environmental degradation are often the least affected by its consequences, while nations that contribute the least to climate change face the highest environmental risks—including an increased likelihood of violent conflict.

This conclusion comes from a recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment and co-authored by a University of Notre Dame researcher. The findings challenge long-held assumptions about the links between environmental harm and conflict, exposing deep global inequalities that disproportionately impact countries in the Global South.

Richard (Drew) Marcantonio, assistant professor at Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs, emphasized the urgent need to shift the way global environmental and peace discussions are framed.

"Our study highlights the gap in current research evaluating the connection between ecological sustainability and peace," Marcantonio said. "This is crucial for designing evidence-based policies that address global inequalities and support human dignity."

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The connection between environmental stress and conflict is well established. Climate change, resource scarcity, and ecological degradation can trigger or intensify conflict, while conflict itself can accelerate environmental damage and deplete resources. Social institutions and cultural norms play a key role in either mitigating or intensifying this cycle.

Earlier research had hinted that higher ecological sustainability might go hand-in-hand with greater peace. However, the new study finds that this assumption doesn't hold up when more inclusive and accurate measurements are used. Instead of relying on traditional metrics—which often overestimate sustainability and peace in wealthier nations—the researchers incorporated broader indicators, including ecological footprint and involvement in internal conflicts that affect other countries.

This approach offered a clearer picture of how global inequalities manifest in environmental and conflict outcomes. It revealed that while wealthy nations often appear more peaceful and sustainable, they are largely shielded from the damage their activities inflict on others.

"In evaluating where peace is most prevalent, our results reaffirm the need to ask and answer the question of how to achieve a good life for all within planetary boundaries—or in this case, comprehensively sustainable peace for all," said Marcantonio. "And, although our results suggest that ecological sustainability and peace are not positively correlated, this relationship is not a necessary one. Ecologically sustainable peace is possible."

Marcantonio, who is also part of the University’s Environmental Change Initiative, co-authored the study with Sean Field, assistant professor at the University of Wyoming.

The researchers suggest that future work should continue to explore how sustainable peace can be achieved in a way that does not shift environmental and conflict burdens onto vulnerable populations.

"With global rates of conflict and environmental risk on the rise, addressing this paradox is not only timely—it’s essential," Marcantonio said.

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